UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

SC Braga–Železničar Pančevo

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 July 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'SC BragaR. Horta (penalty)
44'SC BragaGabriel Silva (assist: R. Horta)
63'SC BragaPau Víctor (assist: R. Horta)
85'SC BragaF. Navarro (assist: Pau Víctor)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Braga 2.26 · Železničar Pančevo 0.64. On the pitch: 4-0.

Referee

D. Cerny→

3.67

yellows per match

0.39

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.3%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.26 for SC Braga, 0.64 for Železničar Pančevo.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (1X — SC Braga win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,309 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Braga to win74.3%

Draw16.4%

Železničar Pančevo to win9.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 838 of 1,955 predictions were correct (42.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — SC Braga win or draw90.8%

12 — any result other than a draw83.6%

X2 — draw or Železničar Pančevo win25.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.4%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Braga score2.26

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score0.64

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.0%1–012.7%3–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2309 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 98 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.