UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Panathinaikos–Paks

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 July 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'PaksM. Peto (assist: K. Horvath)
44'PanathinaikosA. Jagusic
57'PaksM. Gyorfi
85'PanathinaikosE. Rastoder (assist: S. de Vrij)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Panathinaikos		Paks
20	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
71%	Possession	29%
626	Passes	256
517	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Panathinaikos 1.88 · Paks 1.37. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Panathinaikos 20 · Paks 8; on target 8 and 4.
Panathinaikos kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

M. Nagtegaal→

2.65

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.9%: “Panathinaikos to win”. Second comes “Paks to win” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for Panathinaikos, 1.37 for Paks.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,610 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Panathinaikos to win49.9%

Draw21.9%

Paks to win28.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Panathinaikos score1.88

Attack: Panathinaikos score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Paks's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paks score1.37

Attack: Paks score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Panathinaikos concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.7%2–19.4%1–07.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.