UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Ludogorets–Hapoel Tel Aviv

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 July 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Hapoel Tel AvivE. Boateng (assist: O. Altman)
47'LudogoretsB. Tekpetey (assist: Petar Stanić)
54'LudogoretsA. Salido Tajero (assist: I. Chochev)
58'Hapoel Tel AvivE. Boateng

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ludogorets 1.20 · Hapoel Tel Aviv 0.70. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

S. Karabaev→

5.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.6%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Ludogorets, 0.70 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (1X — Ludogorets win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,874 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ludogorets to win48.6%

Draw29.6%

Hapoel Tel Aviv to win21.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 74 of 189 predictions were correct (39.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ludogorets win or draw78.2%

12 — any result other than a draw70.4%

X2 — draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv win51.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.6%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ludogorets score1.20

Attack: Ludogorets score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Tel Aviv concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.20 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Hapoel Tel Aviv score0.70

Attack: Hapoel Tel Aviv score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–018.4%0–014.6%1–112.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1874 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 87 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.