UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Ajax–Vojvodina

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 July 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'VojvodinaĐ. Crnomarković (assist: N. Petrović)
44'AjaxD. Klaassen (assist: Y. Regeer)
53'AjaxO. Gloukh (assist: M. Godts)
58'AjaxO. Gloukh (assist: S. Berghuis)
71'AjaxO. Gloukh (assist: O. Edvardsen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ajax		Vojvodina
27	Shots	3
11	Shots on target	2
22	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
71%	Possession	29%
662	Passes	268
594	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ajax 2.06 · Vojvodina 0.95. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Ajax 27 · Vojvodina 3; on target 11 and 2.
Ajax kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

C. Vergetis→

5.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.3%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.06 for Ajax, 0.95 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 83.2% (1X — Ajax win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,309 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ajax to win63.3%

Draw19.9%

Vojvodina to win16.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,325 of 2,113 predictions were correct (62.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ajax score2.06

Attack: Ajax score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score0.95

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–010.5%2–010.5%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.