UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Valletta FC–Raków Częstochowa

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 July 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Raków CzęstochowaMichael Ameyaw (assist: A. Molnar)
31'Raków CzęstochowaT. Pienko
54'Raków CzęstochowaA. Molnar
60'Valletta FCP. Sekulović · red card
78'Raków CzęstochowaP. Makuch (assist: O. Kwiatkowski)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valletta FC 0.39 · Raków Częstochowa 2.73. On the pitch: 0-4.

Referee

P. Ilic→

4.08

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 86.2%: “Raków Częstochowa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.39 for Valletta FC, 2.73 for Raków Częstochowa.
The highest double chance value is 96.5% (X2 — draw or Raków Częstochowa win).
These values were computed from 1,981 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valletta FC to win3.5%

Draw10.3%

Raków Częstochowa to win86.2%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 68 of 181 predictions were correct (37.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Valletta FC win or draw13.8%

12 — any result other than a draw89.7%

X2 — draw or Raków Częstochowa win96.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (10.3%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valletta FC score0.39

Attack: Valletta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score2.73

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valletta FC concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–216.4%0–314.9%0–112.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1981 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 84 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.