UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Dukagjini–FC Lugano

1–5

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 July 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'FC LuganoK. Behrens
9'FC LuganoD. Dos Santos (assist: Mattia Zanotti)
10'DukagjiniM. Maliqi
36'FC LuganoK. Behrens (assist: Antonios Papadopoulos)
51'FC LuganoE. Sinani (own goal)
58'FC LuganoK. Behrens (assist: U. Bislimi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dukagjini		FC Lugano
9	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
288	Passes	499
229	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dukagjini 0.61 · FC Lugano 1.84. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Dukagjini 9 · FC Lugano 12; on target 4 and 7.
FC Lugano kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

K. Roucek→

3.83

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.1%: “FC Lugano to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.61 for Dukagjini, 1.84 for FC Lugano.
The highest double chance value is 88.0% (X2 — draw or FC Lugano win).
These values were computed from 1,544 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dukagjini to win12.0%

Draw20.9%

FC Lugano to win67.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dukagjini score0.61

Attack: Dukagjini score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Lugano concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Lugano score1.84

Attack: FC Lugano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dukagjini concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–116.2%0–214.6%1–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.