UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Raków Częstochowa–Valletta FC

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 July 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Valletta FCM. Morello (assist: Thaylor)
53'Raków CzęstochowaMahir Emreli
78'Raków CzęstochowaP. Makuch (assist: T. Pienko)
90'Raków CzęstochowaS. Svarnas (assist: P. Makuch)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Raków Częstochowa 3.58 · Valletta FC 0.30. On the pitch: 3-1.

Referee

K. Saglam→

5.18

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 94.0%: “Raków Częstochowa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 4.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.58 for Raków Częstochowa, 0.30 for Valletta FC.
The highest double chance value is 98.8% (1X — Raków Częstochowa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,972 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Raków Częstochowa to win94.0%

Draw4.8%

Valletta FC to win1.2%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 46 of 48 predictions were correct (95.8%). Accuracy record →

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score3.58

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valletta FC concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valletta FC score0.30

Attack: Valletta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–015.8%4–014.2%2–013.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.