UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

AEK Larnaca–Beitar Jerusalem

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 July 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'AEK LarnacaM. van der Hoorn · red card
77'Beitar JerusalemBrayan Carabalí

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Larnaca 1.52 · Beitar Jerusalem 1.29. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

E. Wattellier→

3.09

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “Beitar Jerusalem to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for AEK Larnaca, 1.29 for Beitar Jerusalem.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,694 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Larnaca to win43.0%

Draw24.4%

Beitar Jerusalem to win32.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AEK Larnaca win or draw67.4%

12 — any result other than a draw75.6%

X2 — draw or Beitar Jerusalem win57.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.4%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.2%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Larnaca score1.52

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Beitar Jerusalem concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.52 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Beitar Jerusalem score1.29

Attack: Beitar Jerusalem score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.29 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–09.6%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1694 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 124 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.