UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Malisheva–Hibernian

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 July 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'MalishevaK. Uka (assist: A. Veliu)
90'MalishevaV. Nafiu (assist: K. Uka)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Malisheva 0.91 · Hibernian 2.14. On the pitch: 2-0.

Referee

R. Lissorgue→

3.82

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.8%: “Hibernian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.91 for Malisheva, 2.14 for Hibernian.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (X2 — draw or Hibernian win).
These values were computed from 1,586 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malisheva to win15.2%

Draw19.0%

Hibernian to win65.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Malisheva win or draw34.2%

12 — any result other than a draw81.0%

X2 — draw or Hibernian win84.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.0%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Malisheva score0.91

Attack: Malisheva score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Hibernian concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hibernian score2.14

Attack: Hibernian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malisheva's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–210.8%0–110.4%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1586 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 144 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.