UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Železničar Pančevo–SC Braga

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 22 July 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

67'SC BragaR. Horta (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Železničar Pančevo 0.82 · SC Braga 1.77. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

M. Turkmen→

3.78

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.2%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.82 for Železničar Pančevo, 1.77 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (X2 — draw or SC Braga win).
These values were computed from 2,303 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Železničar Pančevo to win17.4%

Draw22.4%

SC Braga to win60.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Železničar Pančevo win or draw39.8%

12 — any result other than a draw77.6%

X2 — draw or SC Braga win82.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.4%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score0.82

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score1.77

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.6%0–211.7%1–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.