UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Floriana–Drita

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 July 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'DritaL. Balaj (assist: B. Krasniqi)
90'FlorianaA. Drina

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Floriana 0.84 · Drita 1.23. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

M. Grotta→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Drita to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Floriana, 1.23 for Drita.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or Drita win).
These values were computed from 1,467 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Floriana to win25.7%

Draw28.7%

Drita to win45.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Floriana win or draw54.4%

12 — any result other than a draw71.3%

X2 — draw or Drita win74.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.7%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Floriana score0.84

Attack: Floriana score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Drita concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.84 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Drita score1.23

Attack: Drita score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Floriana concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–116.0%1–112.7%0–012.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.