UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Heart Of Midlothian–Benfica

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

77'Heart Of MidlothianT. Magnusson
78'BenficaDodi Lukebakio (assist: J. Neto)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 0.97 · Benfica 1.83. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

S. van der Eijk→

3.44

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.9%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.83 for Benfica.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (X2 — draw or Benfica win).
These values were computed from 2,112 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win20.1%

Draw22.1%

Benfica to win57.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Heart Of Midlothian win or draw42.1%

12 — any result other than a draw77.9%

X2 — draw or Benfica win79.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.1%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score0.97

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Benfica score1.83

Attack: Benfica score 69% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.83 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

0–111.4%1–110.5%0–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.