UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Anderlecht–PAOK

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'AnderlechtLéo Pétrot
34'PAOKA. Zivkovic (assist: Taison)
47'AnderlechtLukáš Ambros (assist: G. Biancone)
55'AnderlechtDanylo Sikan (assist: M. Cvetkovic)
88'PAOKA. Jeremejeff (penalty)
89'PAOKA. Zivkovic · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anderlecht 1.48 · PAOK 1.36. On the pitch: 3-2.

Referee

S. Sozza→

4.44

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “PAOK to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Anderlecht, 1.36 for PAOK.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,947 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anderlecht to win40.5%

Draw24.3%

PAOK to win35.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

90+3'PAOKA. Jeremejeff · red card

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Anderlecht win or draw64.8%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or PAOK win59.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.0%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anderlecht score1.48

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAOK score1.36

Attack: PAOK score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–09.0%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1947 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 136 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.