UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Rangers–Jagiellonia

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'RangersL. Shankland (penalty)
65'JagielloniaNik Prelec (assist: Ferslev Anders Klynge)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rangers 1.94 · Jagiellonia 1.34. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

V. Fotias→

4.73

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “Rangers to win”. Second comes “Jagiellonia to win” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.94 for Rangers, 1.34 for Jagiellonia.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,127 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rangers to win51.9%

Draw21.5%

Jagiellonia to win26.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Rangers win or draw73.3%

12 — any result other than a draw78.5%

X2 — draw or Jagiellonia win48.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.5%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.0%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rangers score1.94

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Jagiellonia's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Jagiellonia score1.34

Attack: Jagiellonia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.5%1–19.5%1–07.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2127 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 139 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.