UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

CSKA Sofia–Maccabi Tel Aviv

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: CSKA Sofia 1.38 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.38. On the pitch: 1-3.

Referee

D. Schlager→

4.70

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “CSKA Sofia to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win” at 37.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for CSKA Sofia, 1.38 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,888 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

CSKA Sofia to win37.8%

Draw24.8%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win37.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — CSKA Sofia win or draw62.5%

12 — any result other than a draw75.2%

X2 — draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv win62.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.8%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.38

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.38

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.38 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%1–09.1%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.