UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Pafos–Red Bull Salzburg

3–3

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'PafosLele (assist: Bruno)
37'PafosBiel
54'Red Bull SalzburgH. Tabakovic (assist: D. Redzic)
58'Red Bull SalzburgH. Tabakovic (penalty)
70'Red Bull SalzburgH. Tabakovic
84'PafosM. Mammadov (assist: Lele)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pafos 1.69 · Red Bull Salzburg 1.38. On the pitch: 3-3.

Referee

J. Pinheiro→

4.75

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.2%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “Red Bull Salzburg to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Pafos, 1.38 for Red Bull Salzburg.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,507 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pafos to win45.2%

Draw23.1%

Red Bull Salzburg to win31.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Pafos win or draw68.2%

12 — any result other than a draw76.9%

X2 — draw or Red Bull Salzburg win54.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.1%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.0%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pafos score1.69

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Red Bull Salzburg's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Red Bull Salzburg score1.38

Attack: Red Bull Salzburg score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.38 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%2–19.1%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1507 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 130 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.