UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

PAOK–Anderlecht

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 August 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'AnderlechtM. Cvetkovic (assist: Enric Llansana)

Match statistics

Match statistics
PAOK		Anderlecht
0	Shots	0
2	Shots on target	2
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	1
3	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PAOK 1.75 · Anderlecht 1.12. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots PAOK 0 · Anderlecht 0; on target 2 and 2.
PAOK kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

J. Martinez→

4.08

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.4%: “PAOK to win”. Second comes “Anderlecht to win” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for PAOK, 1.12 for Anderlecht.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,938 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PAOK to win52.4%

Draw22.9%

Anderlecht to win24.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	23

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PAOK score1.75

Attack: PAOK score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anderlecht score1.12

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAOK concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%1–010.2%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.