UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Red Bull Salzburg–Pafos

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

88'Red Bull SalzburgH. Tabaković
90+3'PafosK. Sema · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Red Bull Salzburg		Pafos
0	Shots	0
3	Shots on target	1
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
13	Corners	0
1	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Red Bull Salzburg 1.65 · Pafos 1.39. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Red Bull Salzburg 0 · Pafos 0; on target 3 and 1.
Red Bull Salzburg kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

D. Sylwestrzak→

4.85

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Red Bull Salzburg to win”. Second comes “Pafos to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Red Bull Salzburg, 1.39 for Pafos.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,501 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Red Bull Salzburg to win44.1%

Draw23.2%

Pafos to win32.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Red Bull Salzburg score1.65

Attack: Red Bull Salzburg score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.65 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Pafos score1.39

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Red Bull Salzburg's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.6%2–19.1%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.