UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Maccabi Tel Aviv–CSKA Sofia

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'CSKA SofiaM. Ebong (assist: L. Godoy)
29'CSKA SofiaL. Godoy (assist: I. Pittas)
90'CSKA SofiaJ. Zwarts (assist: Pastor)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Tel Aviv		CSKA Sofia
0	Shots	0
3	Shots on target	7
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.69 · CSKA Sofia 1.16. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Maccabi Tel Aviv 0 · CSKA Sofia 0; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

M. Lukjancukas→

1.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “CSKA Sofia to win” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1.16 for CSKA Sofia.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,881 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win50.1%

Draw23.4%

CSKA Sofia to win26.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.69

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: CSKA Sofia concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.69 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals CSKA Sofia score1.16

Attack: CSKA Sofia score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%1–010.2%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.