UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Ferencvarosi TC–Gornik Zabrze

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 5 August 2026 at 18:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'Ferencvarosi TCM. Corbu (assist: Cadu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ferencvarosi TC		Gornik Zabrze
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ferencvarosi TC 1.50 · Gornik Zabrze 1.05. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Ferencvarosi TC 0 · Gornik Zabrze 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

J. Alberola→

3.67

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.0%: “Ferencvarosi TC to win”. Second comes “Gornik Zabrze to win” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Ferencvarosi TC, 1.05 for Gornik Zabrze.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,045 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ferencvarosi TC to win48.0%

Draw25.2%

Gornik Zabrze to win26.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.50

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Gornik Zabrze's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gornik Zabrze score1.05

Attack: Gornik Zabrze score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.1%1–111.9%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.