UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Benfica–FC ST. Gallen

5–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 July 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis (assist: Rafa Silva)
55'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis (assist: Jakub Kamiński)
57'FC ST. GallenJozo Stanić · red card
65'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis (assist: A. Bah)
74'BenficaVangelis Pavlidis (penalty)
82'Benfica

Match statistics

Match statistics
Benfica		FC ST. Gallen
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Benfica 3.02 · FC ST. Gallen 0.82. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Benfica 0 · FC ST. Gallen 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

F. Badstubner→

3.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.4%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.02 for Benfica, 0.82 for FC ST. Gallen.
The highest double chance value is 92.9% (1X — Benfica win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,049 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Benfica to win81.4%

Draw11.5%

FC ST. Gallen to win7.1%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Benfica score3.02

Attack: Benfica score 68% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FC ST. Gallen's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC ST. Gallen score0.82

Attack: FC ST. Gallen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–09.9%2–09.8%3–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.