UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Anderlecht–Hammarby FF

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 July 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Hammarby FFP. Abraham
47'AnderlechtD. Sikan (assist: A. Maamar)
81'AnderlechtM. Cvetkovic
89'AnderlechtT. Degreef

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anderlecht		Hammarby FF
21	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	0
2	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
12	Fouls	10

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anderlecht 1.79 · Hammarby FF 1.25. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Anderlecht 21 · Hammarby FF 6; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

D. Nikolic→

3.91

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.4%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “Hammarby FF to win” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for Anderlecht, 1.25 for Hammarby FF.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,199 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anderlecht to win50.4%

Draw22.5%

Hammarby FF to win27.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anderlecht score1.79

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hammarby FF concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hammarby FF score1.25

Attack: Hammarby FF score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%2–19.6%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.