UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Hradec Králové–Tromso

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 July 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'TromsoH. Larsen (assist: S. Innvaer)
30'Hradec KrálovéM. van Buren (assist: J. Kucera)
48'Hradec KrálovéT. Sloncik (assist: M. van Buren)
53'Hradec KrálovéO. Mihalik (assist: D. Horak)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hradec Králové		Tromso
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 1.20 · Tromso 1.35. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Hradec Králové 0 · Tromso 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

N. Dabanovic→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Tromso to win”. Second comes “Hradec Králové to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Hradec Králové, 1.35 for Tromso.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,100 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win33.6%

Draw25.9%

Tromso to win40.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score1.20

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tromso concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tromso score1.35

Attack: Tromso score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%0–110.9%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.