UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round

FC ST. Gallen–Benfica

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 July 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'FC ST. GallenA. Balde (assist: L. Gortler)
44'BenficaRafa Silva (assist: Vangelis Pavlidis)
80'FC ST. GallenT. Gaal (assist: L. Daschner)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC ST. Gallen		Benfica
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC ST. Gallen 1.04 · Benfica 2.41. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC ST. Gallen 0 · Benfica 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

L. Pairetto→

4.55

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.8%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for FC ST. Gallen, 2.41 for Benfica.
The highest double chance value is 85.1% (X2 — draw or Benfica win).
These values were computed from 2,043 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC ST. Gallen to win14.9%

Draw17.3%

Benfica to win67.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC ST. Gallen score1.04

Attack: FC ST. Gallen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Benfica score2.41

Attack: Benfica score 68% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FC ST. Gallen's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.6%0–29.2%0–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.