UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Beşiktaş–FC Midtjylland

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 July 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 40%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'FC MidtjyllandFriday Etim · red card
26'BeşiktaşO. Kokcu (assist: V. Cerny)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beşiktaş		FC Midtjylland
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beşiktaş 1.58 · FC Midtjylland 1.50. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Beşiktaş 0 · FC Midtjylland 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

R. De Burgos→

3.55

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Beşiktaş to win”. Second comes “FC Midtjylland to win” at 36.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Beşiktaş, 1.50 for FC Midtjylland.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,017 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beşiktaş to win40.2%

Draw23.2%

FC Midtjylland to win36.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beşiktaş score1.58

Attack: Beşiktaş score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.50

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Beşiktaş concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%2–18.6%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.