UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Hammarby FF–Anderlecht

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 July 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'AnderlechtDanylo Sikan
78'AnderlechtN. Saliba · red card
89'Hammarby FFF. Adjei (assist: P. Abraham)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hammarby FF		Anderlecht
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hammarby FF 1.57 · Anderlecht 1.46. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Hammarby FF 0 · Anderlecht 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

D. Robertson→

3.64

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Hammarby FF to win”. Second comes “Anderlecht to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Hammarby FF, 1.46 for Anderlecht.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,191 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hammarby FF to win40.7%

Draw23.5%

Anderlecht to win35.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hammarby FF score1.57

Attack: Hammarby FF score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anderlecht score1.46

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hammarby FF concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%2–18.7%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.