Lask Linz–Celtic

5–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 25 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lask Linz		Celtic
39	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	3
23	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
568	Passes	614
459	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lask Linz 1.39 · Celtic 1.78. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Lask Linz 39 · Celtic 8; on target 8 and 3.

Unavailable players

Lask Linz

R. Harakateout · Knee Injury

Celtic

A. Johnstonout · Leg Injury
A. Oxlade-Chamberlainout · red-card suspension
Jotaout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

S. Marciniak→

4.06

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

116

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Lask Linz to win”. Second comes “Celtic to win” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for Lask Linz, 1.39 for Celtic.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,549 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lask Linz to win49.0%

Draw21.9%

Celtic to win29.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lask Linz score1.39

Attack: Lask Linz score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.39 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Celtic score1.78

Attack: Celtic score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lask Linz's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.7%2–19.3%1–07.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.