Celtic–Lask Linz

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 19 August 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'CelticB. Nygren
38'CelticC. Durán
67'CelticC. Durán (assist: B. Nygren)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celtic		Lask Linz
17	Shots	20
7	Shots on target	8
8	Shots inside the box	13
8	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	3
1	Offsides	5
64%	Possession	36%
659	Passes	358
583	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celtic 2.24 · Lask Linz 1.11. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Celtic 17 · Lask Linz 20; on target 7 and 8.
Celtic kept the ball more (64%).

Unavailable players

Celtic

A. Johnstonout · Leg Injury
A. Oxlade-Chamberlainout · red-card suspension
Jotaout · Knee Injury

Lask Linz

R. Harakateout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 06:11.

Referee

S. Scharer→

4.23

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.1%: “Celtic to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.24 for Celtic, 1.11 for Lask Linz.
The highest double chance value is 82.0% (1X — Celtic win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,545 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celtic to win63.1%

Draw18.9%

Lask Linz to win18.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celtic score2.24

Attack: Celtic score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lask Linz's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lask Linz score1.11

Attack: Lask Linz score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.11 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–19.8%2–08.8%1–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.