UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Sturm Graz–Fenerbahçe

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 11 August 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

66'FenerbahçeTalisca (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sturm Graz		Fenerbahçe
19	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
383	Passes	397
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sturm Graz 1.20 · Fenerbahçe 1.81. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Sturm Graz 19 · Fenerbahçe 11; on target 2 and 6.

Referee

A. Hernandez→

4.24

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.1%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “Sturm Graz to win” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Sturm Graz, 1.81 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,029 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sturm Graz to win25.5%

Draw22.4%

Fenerbahçe to win52.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sturm Graz score1.20

Attack: Sturm Graz score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.81

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sturm Graz concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%1–29.7%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.