UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

FK Crvena Zvezda–Hapoel Beer Sheva

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 11 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'Hapoel Beer ShevaIgor Zlatanović (assist: Javon East)
79'Hapoel Beer ShevaJavon East (assist: E. Peretz)
90+3'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Abu Fani · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		Hapoel Beer Sheva
0	Shots	0
2	Shots on target	6
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
4%	Possession	96%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.13 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.32. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 0 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 0; on target 2 and 6.
Hapoel Beer Sheva kept the ball more (96%).

Referee

G. Nyberg→

3.41

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.4%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Beer Sheva to win” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.13 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 1.32 for Hapoel Beer Sheva.
The highest double chance value is 79.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,944 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win56.4%

Draw20.2%

Hapoel Beer Sheva to win23.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,758 of 2,948 predictions were correct (59.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.13

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 116% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.13 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Hapoel Beer Sheva score1.32

Attack: Hapoel Beer Sheva score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.32 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–19.5%1–18.6%2–07.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.