UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

NEC Nijmegen–Olympiakos Piraeus

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 11 August 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NEC Nijmegen 1.04 · Olympiakos Piraeus 1.46. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

M. Mariani→

4.12

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

100

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “NEC Nijmegen to win” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.46 for Olympiakos Piraeus.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,045 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NEC Nijmegen to win27.2%

Draw25.6%

Olympiakos Piraeus to win47.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — NEC Nijmegen win or draw52.8%

12 — any result other than a draw74.4%

X2 — draw or Olympiakos Piraeus win72.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.6%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.04

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 55% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.46

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–112.4%1–112.1%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2045 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 136 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.