UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Bodo/Glimt–Union St. Gilloise

3–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 11 August 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'Bodo/GlimtO. Didrik Blomberg (assist: J. Hauge)
61'Union St. GilloiseGuilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho (assist: D. Olaru)
76'Bodo/GlimtJ. Hauge (assist: A. Helmersen)
88'Union St. GilloiseM. Fuseini (assist: L. Patris)
90+6'Union St. GilloiseK. Van De Perre · red card
117'Bodo/Glimt

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Union St. Gilloise
23	Shots	19
9	Shots on target	5
17	Shots inside the box	15
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	1
1	Offsides	4
70%	Possession	30%
999	Passes	427
889	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 1.37 · Union St. Gilloise 1.11. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 23 · Union St. Gilloise 19; on target 9 and 5.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

I. Kovacs→

5.06

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “Union St. Gilloise to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Bodo/Glimt, 1.11 for Union St. Gilloise.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,223 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win43.2%

Draw26.1%

Union St. Gilloise to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,232 of 4,768 predictions were correct (46.8%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodo/Glimt win or draw69.2%

12 — any result other than a draw73.9%

X2 — draw or Union St. Gilloise win56.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.1%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.2%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.37

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.37 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.11

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–011.8%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2223 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 137 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.