UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Union St. Gilloise–Bodo/Glimt

3–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 4 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'Bodo/GlimtP. Berg
25'Union St. GilloiseR. Florucz
29'Bodo/GlimtO. Didrik Blomberg (penalty)
45'Union St. GilloiseR. Florucz (assist: Guilherme Smith)
88'Union St. GilloiseP. David (assist: K. Rodriguez)
90'Bodo/GlimtO. Bjørtuft (assist: P. Berg)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		Bodo/Glimt
18	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 1.42 · Bodo/Glimt 1.08. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 18 · Bodo/Glimt 6; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

I. Peljto→

3.91

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.2%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “Bodo/Glimt to win” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Union St. Gilloise, 1.08 for Bodo/Glimt.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,207 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win45.2%

Draw25.8%

Bodo/Glimt to win29.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

0	Fouls	0

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.42

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.08

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.08 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–012.1%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.