UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Sparta Praha–Lyon

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 4 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'LyonMartin Suchomel (own goal)
63'Sparta PrahaMatěj Ryneš (assist: Andy Irving)
69'Sparta PrahaJohn Mercado (assist: Matěj Ryneš)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Praha		Lyon
9	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	9
3	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
441	Passes	404
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Praha 1.29 · Lyon 1.57. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sparta Praha 9 · Lyon 11; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

S. Gozubuyuk→

4.08

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.1%: “Lyon to win”. Second comes “Sparta Praha to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Sparta Praha, 1.57 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,332 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Praha to win31.9%

Draw24.0%

Lyon to win44.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Praha score1.29

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score1.57

Attack: Lyon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%0–19.3%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.