UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Olympiakos Piraeus–NEC Nijmegen

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 4 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		NEC Nijmegen
12	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	6
54%	Possession	46%
397	Passes	348
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.91 · NEC Nijmegen 0.79. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 12 · NEC Nijmegen 13; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

J. Sanchez→

4.88

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.0%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 0.79 for NEC Nijmegen.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — Olympiakos Piraeus win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,036 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win64.0%

Draw20.8%

NEC Nijmegen to win15.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.91

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score0.79

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 55% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.1%2–012.2%1–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.