UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Hapoel Beer Sheva–FK Crvena Zvezda

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 4 August 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'Hapoel Beer ShevaZahi Ahmed
58'Hapoel Beer ShevaMatan Baltaxa · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1.62 · FK Crvena Zvezda 1.75. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

J. Manzano→

4.59

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “Hapoel Beer Sheva to win” at 36.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Hapoel Beer Sheva, 1.75 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,938 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hapoel Beer Sheva to win36.2%

Draw22.1%

FK Crvena Zvezda to win41.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hapoel Beer Sheva win or draw58.3%

12 — any result other than a draw77.9%

X2 — draw or FK Crvena Zvezda win63.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.1%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hapoel Beer Sheva score1.62

Attack: Hapoel Beer Sheva score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.62 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score1.75

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 118% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.75 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–19.4%1–28.5%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1938 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 144 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.