UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Gornik Zabrze–Fenerbahçe

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 July 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.2% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'FenerbahçeTalisca (penalty)
45'Gornik ZabrzeM. Sacek (assist: E. Prekop)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gornik Zabrze		Fenerbahçe
15	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
383	Passes	433
301	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gornik Zabrze 1.39 · Fenerbahçe 1.34. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Gornik Zabrze 15 · Fenerbahçe 14; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

Lothar D'hondt, Belgium→

4.33

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Gornik Zabrze to win”. Second comes “Fenerbahçe to win” at 36.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Gornik Zabrze, 1.34 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,602 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gornik Zabrze to win38.6%

Draw24.9%

Fenerbahçe to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gornik Zabrze score1.39

Attack: Gornik Zabrze score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.34

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Gornik Zabrze's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–09.4%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.