UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Lech Poznan–Aarhus

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 July 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lech Poznan 1.57 · Aarhus 1.30. On the pitch: 0-3.

Referee

J. Xhaja→

4.84

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “Lech Poznan to win”. Second comes “Aarhus to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Lech Poznan, 1.30 for Aarhus.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,887 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lech Poznan to win43.9%

Draw24.0%

Aarhus to win32.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lech Poznan win or draw67.9%

12 — any result other than a draw76.0%

X2 — draw or Aarhus win56.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.0%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lech Poznan score1.57

Attack: Lech Poznan score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Aarhus concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.57 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Aarhus score1.30

Attack: Aarhus score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Lech Poznan concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%1–09.2%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1887 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 129 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.