UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Heart Of Midlothian–Sturm Graz

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 28 July 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'Sturm GrazSimon Seidl (assist: Jon Gorenc Stanković)
68'Sturm GrazE. Soglo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Sturm Graz
15	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	9
8	Shots inside the box	13
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
473	Passes	270
379	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 1.57 · Sturm Graz 1.05. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 15 · Sturm Graz 17; on target 4 and 9.
Heart Of Midlothian kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Treimanis→

6.13

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.8%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “Sturm Graz to win” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.05 for Sturm Graz.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,515 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win49.8%

Draw24.5%

Sturm Graz to win25.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.57

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sturm Graz's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sturm Graz score1.05

Attack: Sturm Graz score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–011.8%1–111.6%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.