UEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying Round

Universitatea Craiova–ML Vitebsk

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 15 July 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Universitatea CraiovaN. Bancu (assist: A. Mekvabishvili)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Universitatea Craiova		ML Vitebsk
4	Shots	1
1	Shots on target	1
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Universitatea Craiova 3.17 · ML Vitebsk 0.41. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Universitatea Craiova 4 · ML Vitebsk 1; on target 1 and 1.

Referee

M. Rusz→

4.50

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 89.8%: “Universitatea Craiova to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 7.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.17 for Universitatea Craiova, 0.41 for ML Vitebsk.
The highest double chance value is 97.4% (1X — Universitatea Craiova win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,128 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Universitatea Craiova to win89.8%

Draw7.6%

ML Vitebsk to win2.6%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

0	Fouls	0

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Universitatea Craiova score3.17

Attack: Universitatea Craiova score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: ML Vitebsk concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals ML Vitebsk score0.41

Attack: ML Vitebsk score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Universitatea Craiova concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.41 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

3–014.8%2–014.0%4–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.