Crystal Palace–Rayo Vallecano

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 27 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'Crystal PalaceJ. Mateta

Match statistics

Match statistics
Crystal Palace		Rayo Vallecano
11	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
306	Passes	412
234	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Crystal Palace 1.48 · Rayo Vallecano 1.11. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Crystal Palace 11 · Rayo Vallecano 10; on target 3 and 1.
Rayo Vallecano kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Mariani→

4.07

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “Crystal Palace to win”. Second comes “Rayo Vallecano to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Crystal Palace, 1.11 for Rayo Vallecano.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 3,040 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Crystal Palace to win46.1%

Draw25.2%

Rayo Vallecano to win28.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Crystal Palace score1.48

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.11

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%1–011.5%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.