UEFA Europa Conference League · Semi-finals

Strasbourg–Rayo Vallecano

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 7 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'Rayo VallecanoAlemão

Match statistics

Match statistics
Strasbourg		Rayo Vallecano
11	Shots	22
3	Shots on target	8
8	Shots inside the box	14
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
432	Passes	447
365	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Strasbourg 1.52 · Rayo Vallecano 1.15. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Strasbourg 11 · Rayo Vallecano 22; on target 3 and 8.

Referee

I. Kruzliak→

3.86

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Strasbourg to win”. Second comes “Rayo Vallecano to win” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Strasbourg, 1.15 for Rayo Vallecano.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,758 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Strasbourg to win46.3%

Draw24.7%

Rayo Vallecano to win29.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Strasbourg score1.52

Attack: Strasbourg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.15

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Strasbourg's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%1–010.9%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.