UEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finals

AEK Athens FC–Rayo Vallecano

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 16 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'AEK Athens FCZini (assist: S. Pilios)
36'AEK Athens FCR. Marin (penalty)
51'AEK Athens FCZini (assist: D. Kutesa)
60'Rayo VallecanoI. Palazon (assist: Pedro Díaz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Rayo Vallecano
21	Shots	10
9	Shots on target	4
16	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
374	Passes	232
300	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 1.28 · Rayo Vallecano 0.94. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots AEK Athens FC 21 · Rayo Vallecano 10; on target 9 and 4.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

E. Eskas→

3.13

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.8%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “Rayo Vallecano to win” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for AEK Athens FC, 0.94 for Rayo Vallecano.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,252 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win44.8%

Draw27.6%

Rayo Vallecano to win27.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score1.28

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score0.94

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.3%1–112.7%0–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.