UEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finals

Fiorentina–Crystal Palace

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 16 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Crystal PalaceI. Sarr (assist: D. Muñoz)
30'FiorentinaAlbert Guðmundsson (penalty)
53'FiorentinaCher Ndour (assist: M. Solomon)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fiorentina		Crystal Palace
16	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
558	Passes	276
482	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fiorentina 1.50 · Crystal Palace 1.26. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Fiorentina 16 · Crystal Palace 9; on target 6 and 3.
Fiorentina kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

J. Manzano→

4.42

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.3%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “Crystal Palace to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Fiorentina, 1.26 for Crystal Palace.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,919 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fiorentina to win43.3%

Draw24.5%

Crystal Palace to win32.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fiorentina score1.50

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Crystal Palace score1.26

Attack: Crystal Palace score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–09.9%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.