UEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finals

FSV Mainz 05–Strasbourg

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 9 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'FSV Mainz 05K. Sano (assist: S. Kawasaki)
19'FSV Mainz 05S. Posch (assist: P. Nebel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		Strasbourg
18	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
34%	Possession	66%
289	Passes	607
227	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 1.51 · Strasbourg 1.37. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 18 · Strasbourg 9; on target 6 and 2.
Strasbourg kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

R. Obrenovic→

4.87

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “Strasbourg to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.37 for Strasbourg.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,413 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win41.0%

Draw24.1%

Strasbourg to win34.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score1.51

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Strasbourg's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Strasbourg score1.37

Attack: Strasbourg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–08.9%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.