UEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finals

Rayo Vallecano–AEK Athens FC

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 9 April 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Rayo VallecanoIlias Akhomach (assist: Álvaro García)
45'Rayo VallecanoUnai López
74'Rayo VallecanoI. Palazon (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		AEK Athens FC
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
333	Passes	400
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.24 · AEK Athens FC 0.94. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 10 · AEK Athens FC 11; on target 4 and 2.
AEK Athens FC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

B. Bastien→

4.04

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.7%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “AEK Athens FC to win” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.94 for AEK Athens FC.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,242 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win43.7%

Draw28.0%

AEK Athens FC to win28.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.24

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEK Athens FC score0.94

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.4%1–112.8%0–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.