UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16

Rayo Vallecano–Samsunspor

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'SamsunsporZ. Yavru · red card
65'SamsunsporC. Ndiaye (assist: Marius)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rayo Vallecano		Samsunspor
19	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
13	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
298	Passes	400
209	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano 1.63 · Samsunspor 0.69. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Rayo Vallecano 19 · Samsunspor 9; on target 6 and 2.
Samsunspor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Stegemann→

4.92

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.3%: “Rayo Vallecano to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Rayo Vallecano, 0.69 for Samsunspor.
The highest double chance value is 84.0% (1X — Rayo Vallecano win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,724 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rayo Vallecano to win60.3%

Draw23.8%

Samsunspor to win16.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rayo Vallecano score1.63

Attack: Rayo Vallecano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Samsunspor score0.69

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rayo Vallecano's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.3%2–013.0%1–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.