UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16

Sparta Praha–AZ Alkmaar

0–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'AZ AlkmaarI. Jensen (assist: K. Smit)
58'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (assist: D. Kasius)
62'AZ AlkmaarS. Mijnans (assist: K. Smit)
73'AZ AlkmaarRo-Zangelo Daal (assist: T. Parrott)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Praha		AZ Alkmaar
6	Shots	16
1	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
376	Passes	498
310	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Praha 1.68 · AZ Alkmaar 1.29. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Sparta Praha 6 · AZ Alkmaar 16; on target 1 and 5.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Jovanovic→

3.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.0%: “Sparta Praha to win”. Second comes “AZ Alkmaar to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Sparta Praha, 1.29 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,134 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Praha to win47.0%

Draw23.2%

AZ Alkmaar to win29.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Praha score1.68

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.29

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.8%2–19.3%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.