UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16

Raków Częstochowa–Fiorentina

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'Raków CzęstochowaK. Struski (assist: I. Lopez)
68'FiorentinaRoberto Piccoli (assist: Cher Ndour)
90'FiorentinaMarin Pongračić (assist: Albert Guðmundsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Raków Częstochowa		Fiorentina
13	Shots	21
1	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
398	Passes	403
322	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Raków Częstochowa 1.35 · Fiorentina 1.33. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Raków Częstochowa 13 · Fiorentina 21; on target 1 and 7.

Referee

J. Martinez→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Raków Częstochowa to win”. Second comes “Fiorentina to win” at 37.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Raków Częstochowa, 1.33 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,573 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Raków Częstochowa to win37.7%

Draw25.2%

Fiorentina to win37.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Raków Częstochowa score1.35

Attack: Raków Częstochowa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.33

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Raków Częstochowa concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%1–09.6%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.