UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16

FSV Mainz 05–Sigma Olomouc

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'FSV Mainz 05S. Posch (assist: P. Nebel)
76'Sigma OlomoucPéter Baráth · red card
82'FSV Mainz 05A. Sieb (assist: D. da Costa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FSV Mainz 05		Sigma Olomouc
18	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
477	Passes	410
381	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FSV Mainz 05 2.04 · Sigma Olomouc 0.73. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FSV Mainz 05 18 · Sigma Olomouc 6; on target 6 and 1.

Referee

A. Treimanis→

6.00

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.4%: “FSV Mainz 05 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.04 for FSV Mainz 05, 0.73 for Sigma Olomouc.
The highest double chance value is 87.5% (1X — FSV Mainz 05 win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,125 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FSV Mainz 05 to win68.4%

Draw19.1%

Sigma Olomouc to win12.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FSV Mainz 05 score2.04

Attack: FSV Mainz 05 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sigma Olomouc's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sigma Olomouc score0.73

Attack: Sigma Olomouc score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FSV Mainz 05's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.1%1–013.1%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.